Syria: How Many Bad Fridays Can Assad Afford? - TIME

Syria: How Many Bad Fridays Can Assad Afford?

By Robert Baer Thursday, Apr. 14, 2011

Syria could very well learn its fate this Friday. According to a source from the country with close ties to the regime, if large-scale demonstrations break out after midday prayer in Syria's two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, the regime will be faced with a stark choice: either crack down with unlimited violence, or meet the demonstrators' demands. In either case, Syria is looking into an abyss.

The regime is in uncharted waters. In 1982 President Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, ordered the shelling of the town of Hama, killing more than 10,000 people to put down an uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood, because he was worried about a general uprising of Sunnis against the minority Alawites who rule Syria. Assad feared that the Alawites would not only be driven from power but also face the real risk of slaughter. As of now his son Bashar has apparently ruled it out, if for no other reason than it is unlkely to turn the tide as it did in 1982. Indeed, he appeared to be trying to calm the public anger. On Thursday, he met with a large delegation from the town of Dara'a, the epicenter of the demonstrations.

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